Triple Crown 2018

Justify (3-1) has been visually impressive in all three of his career starts, including his most recent victory over the talented graded-stakes winner Bolt d'Oro in the Santa Anita Derby. It's true that with only three career races, and with no races as a 2-year old, he is short on experience. It's also true that no horse has won the Derby without racing as a 2-year old since Apollo in the 1880s - although Bodemeister and Curlin both were close. But Justify has looked the part since his first race and with Bob Baffert training and Mike Smith riding, this son of Scat Daddy is poised to make history. I can't argue with those who try to beat him because they don't think he offers enough value as the favorite, but he's my pick to take home the roses on Saturday. Audible (8-1), one of the four Todd Pletcher entries, is my first alternative. The New York bred Into Mischief colt showed a strong finishing kick in his wins in the Holy Bull Stakes and the Florida Derby and figures to sit mid-pack and then unleash his powerful move at the top of the stretch. Jockey JJ Castellano has not had great success in the Derby, but he may be due.

Magnum Moon (6-1), another Pletcher entrant, is also undefeated and, like Justify, also did not race as a 2-year old. The Malibu Moon colt will look to work out a stalking trip under Louis Saez. He should be right there down the stretch. Good Magic (12-1) and Bolt d'Oro (8-1) ran 1-2 in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year. Both have returned to run some good races this year and could easily be in the mix if they move forward. I just like the top three better. Mendelssohn (5-1) is a wild card as he looks to be the first Euro shipper to run competitively in the Derby. His 18-length win in the UA Derby was impressive. But I can't recommend a Euro shipper until one shows up on Derby day, and certainly not as the second choice. Looking for a closer to spice up the exotics? Try Hofburg (20-1) or My Boy Jack (30-1). Both figure to take back and do most of their running late. I don't see them as win threats but they have a chance to hit the board.

Greyvitos (6-1) flashed some serious talent in California in November and December, winning a couple of minor stake races before missing some time due to a bone chip in his knee. The Malibu Moon colt returns for his first race as a 3-year old and lures Joel Rosario to ride for a low profile trainer. He has been working well for his return and there are no world-beaters in this race. He's worth a shot at what should be a nice price. Honor Up (12-1) is an NY State Bred also entering off a layoff since December. In November, he lost to Audible, the Florida Derby winner, by less than 2 lengths in a Stafe Bred maiden race. He followed that up with his maiden score, running off by almost 12 lengths. Trainer Bill Mott moves him way up in class and jockey Jose Ortiz climbs aboard. Somehow, I doubt he goes off at 12-1. My Boy Jack (5-2) is the most accomplished runner in the field and needs to run first or second to secure a start in the Kentucky Derby. Look for an aggressive ride by Kent Desormaux for his brother Keith, but he draws the far outside post and figures to be bet down below his true value. Pony Up (6-1) has done his best running on the synthetic and turf courses, but he is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Johnny V., so it is risky to leave him off your tickets.

Quip (9-2) was impressive defeating Flameaway in the Tampa Bay Derby when confidently pressing the pace under Geroux before taking over turning for home. The Distorted Humor colt will need to improve off of that race but since that was his first race since November, there is plenty of room for improvement. Magnum Moon (8-5) is 3-3 lifetime and looks to keep the streak going for Todd Pletcher (who just keeps winning) and Louis Saez. The morning line favorite is the a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender and a deserving favorite. Combatant (6-1) keeps picking up minor checks and looks to reverse his loss to Magnum Moon and Solomini in the Rebel Stakes. Solomini (2-1) rates a chance if he bounces back from a disappointing race last time out.

Todd Pletcher seems to be winning all these preps lately, so why not pick his horse on top when he’s not the favorite for a change. Vino Rosso (9-2) comes into this race off a disappointing 4^th in the Tampa Bay Derby which followed a third in the Sam Davis Stakes, also at Tampa. Not every horse thrives at that track though, and Pletcher brings this horse back to Aqueduct, the site of the Curlin colt’s maiden score. He has enough speed to work out a nice mid-pack trip under Johnny V and will take him to show some improvement and post a mild upset. Enticed (6-5) ran away with the Gotham Stakes in fairly impressive fashion to bounce back from a disappointing effort in the Holy Bull. The son of Medaglia d’Oro is a deserving favorite, but I’m not sure he beat much that day. Old Time Revival (6-1), second in the Gotham Stakes, was the only other colt who seemed to show up that day. He ran pretty well and with more improvement could be right there again. Bob Baffert ships in Restoring Hope (4-1) off an impressive maiden victory and the son of Giant’s Causeway could be in the mix as well. Firenze Fire (6-1) was a disappointing 4^th in the Gotham Stakes and seems to be tailing off.

Quip (6-1) scored an upset victory at 19-1 in the Tampa Bay Derby for trainer Rodolphe Brisset, the former Bill Mott assistant who went out on his own last year. Although an upset, Quip is now 3 for 4 and the loss was a troubled outside trip in his first stakes race last November. Of course, last time was the time to have him, but I think the son of Distorted Humor showed the talent to make it two in a row here in a crowded renewal of the Blue Grass Stakes. Good Magic (2-1), last year’s 2yo champion returns for Chad Brown off a disappointing third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He will hopefully show improvement, but the Curlin colt also has to navigate an outside post against a large field. Can’t take him on top as the favorite. Flameaway (6-1), second in the Tampa Bay Derby, lost a little position early in that race. He also has to deal with an outside post, but the Scat Daddy colt has shown he is good enough to be right there. Sporting Chance (10-1) may outrun his odds with a better insider trip. Kanthaka (101-) ships in from California to avoid the Santa Anita Stakes after running a distance third behind McKinzie and Bolt d’Oro last time out.

This race figures on paper to be a two-horse race between Justify (4-5) and Bolt d’Oro (6-5), with the winner very likely in the mix to be the Kentucky Derby favorite. My head says that Justify, who is 2 for 2 with two impressive wins, is taking too big a step up in class and giving away too much experience to pick him as the favorite here. But my heart says this son of Scat Daddy may be talented enough to be the first Kentucky Derby winner not to race at all as a 2-year old since Apollo did it in 1882. With Bob Baffert training and Mike Smith riding, Justify just might be the one. Bolt d’Oro, second to Good Magic in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year, returned this year and battled McKinzie to the wire in the San Felipe – losing by a head but being put up after McKinzie was disqualified for interference in the stretch (a questionable decision). Still Bolt d’Oro is the winner of two Grade 1 Stakes races and Justify has never run in a stakes race. It should be a battle and the son of Medaglia d’Oro will likely give Justify all he can handle. Instilled Regard (5-1) should sit a nice rail trip and is solid enough to make his presence felt if the top two slip up or fight it out too hard too soon.

Our top selection in this one is Magnum Moon (7-2) a lightly race Malibu Moon colt out of the stables of Todd Pletcher. He's one both of his two starts in impressive fashion and now moves up to stakes competitor. Jockey Luis Saez, whose having a big winter in Florida, ships in with the colt for this one. The heavy ML favorite, Solomini (3-2), ran 2d to Good Magic in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in November and followed that up in December by winning the Los Alamos Futurity, only to be disqualified and placed 3rd. He's finished 1st or 2d in each of his four races, three of which were Grade 1 Stakes. Bob Baffert and Mike Smith team up with this Curlin colt. He will be tough to beat, but he offers no value and we'll hope he needs a race off the layoff. Combatant (8-1), a Scat Daddy colt out of Steve Asmussen's barn, comes in to the race off of three straight seconds. Last time, he rallied wide in the Southwest Stakes, only to lose out to a horse that had a rail skimming ride over a track that reportedly favored inside runners. With Ricardo Santana aboard, he will be dangerous if he takes a step forward or if there is a speed duel up front. Sporting Chance (5-1) looks to make amends for an underwhelming 4th in the Southwest Stakes. The Tiznow colt out of Wayne Lukas' barn pick up Johnny V as his new rider, and that can only help.

The San Felipe race features the return of Bolt d'Oro, last seen as the beaten favorite in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year, when he ran second to Good Magic. Like Good Magic, this son of Medaglia d'Oro might need a race before he will be at his best. On top of that, in his first start as a 3-year old, he goes up against McKinzie, a talented Street Sense colt out of Bob Baffert's barn who is 2 for 3 lifetime. Those two figure to go off as the two favorites. If you are looking for an upset, Jerry Hollendorfer's Kanthaka ran a big race in his first start as a 3-year old, charging from last to first to win a 7-furlong sprint in the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita. He stretches out here and will be ready to pounce if either of the co-favorites slip up. But it's hard to go against Baffert and Mike Smith in these California prep races.

In the Gotham Stakes, Free Drop Billy comes in to this race as the favorite off a lackluster 2d in the Holy Bull Stakes last month in Florida for Dale Romans. He faces a familiar rival in second choice, Firenze Fire, with whom he split decisions last year. Firenze Fire comes into the race off of a solid second in the Withers over this Aqueduct track and I think the Jason Servis-trained colt is best at this mile distance. Look for him to outduel Free Drop Billy. Others with a chance include Enticed, who was a disappointing 4th in the Holy Bull Stakes, and Dial Operator, who steps up and stretches out for Jason Servis.

In the Tampa Bay Derby, Sam Davis Stakes winner Flameaway is the deserving favorite in this race as he won that race wire to wide and held off the talented Catholic Boy, already notching his 5th win in 7 starts. The Mark Casse trained son of Scat Daddy figures to be challenged by Todd Pletcher's Vino Rosso, who was a relatively even third in the Sam Davis, the Tampa prep for this race. That was the Curlin colt's first race as a 3-year old, so he has a right to improve. But I am going to take a shot with World of Trouble, another Jason Servis-trained colt stretching out for the first time. He was impressive winning the 7-furlong Pasco Stakes over the Tampa track and he's back after a brief freshening, with Irad Ortiz coming in for the mount. Let's hope he scores at a price.

The first Saturday in March is nearly upon us, which means it is two months before the Kentucky Derby. It also means that it is time to start the Road to the Triple Crown blog, with the review of the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park this Saturday (Race 14, 6:09 pm).

This year the Fountain of Youth features the 3yo debut of Good Magic, the winner of last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile and also last year's 2yo champion. He comes into this race off a 4 month layoff and it appears that trainer Chad Brown intends to give him only two preps before the Derby. Assuming Chad has him ready, and there is no reason to doubt that, he has a significant edge on this field. He only has one win in three career tries, but that win was the Juvenile and he had two impressive seconds prior to that against top horses (Firenze Fire in a tough trip Champagne Stakes and Hazit in a contested maiden sprint). He deserves to be the ML favorite at 7-5 and is your most likely winner.

There is plenty of early speed in the race, including undefeated second choice Strike Power (4-1) who stretches out for the first time for Mark Hennig. He figures to be challenged by maiden winners Machismo and by Promises Fulfilled and I'm not sure any of those will be around at the finish. Second place is more likely to go to the classy Free Drop Billy (9-2), who makes his sixth straight stakes start for Dale Romans or to one of the two Tapit colts - Marconi (8-1) or He Takes Charge (20-1) - both of whom are deeper closer types. I like the way Marconi was still trying hard at the end of his third place finish in the Withers Stakes, his first start as a 3yo for Todd Pletcher. He may improve enough to be second here. Sometimes it is as easy as just picking Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher's horses.