Triple Crown 17

With the winner of the Derby and the Preakness both passing on the Belmont Stakes and the unfortunate injury to Classic Empire sending him to the sidelines, this year's race appears to be a little light on talent but it makes for a wide open betting race.  I'm going with ML favorite Irish War Cry (7-2).  I think he has the early speed to get a good trip either stalking or out on the lead, and I think he is the most talented runner in the race.  I'm willing to forgive his poor performance in the Derby and he's already proven that he can bounce back from a bad effort with a win.  To me J Boys Echo (15-1) and Tapwrit (6-1) have similar profiles.  Both were in good form going into the Blue Grass Stakes but ran poorly (Tapwrit more poorly) and both followed it up with another underwhelming effort in the Derby (though Tapwrit ran better there).  If either one finds their prior form, I think they could run the top pick down late.  Others with a chance to hit the board include Lookin at Lee, Senior Investment and Gormley.

 

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Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming (4-5) is the deserving Morning Line favorite.  In both the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby, he stalked the pace and finished fast and strong.  He did get a good trip in each of those races, but part of that is due to his running style and part is due to his talented jockey.  He figures to get another good trip in the Preakness.  There isn't too much early speed signed on, so look for Johnny V to have him either on or stalking the leader.  And really, nobody is better at measuring pace when or stalking the lead than Johnny V.  I am not sure that Always Dreaming is so much better than the rest of the entrants, but with another good trip, the son of Bodemeister figures to beat them again.  Conquest Mo Money (15-1) was overlooked at 17-1 when he ran an impressive 2d to Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby. That brought his lifetime record to  3 wins and 2 seconds in five starts again.  Judging from the Morning Line odds, he may be overlooked again.  But he hasn't run bad race yet and, having skipped the Derby, he could very well improve and run big here.  Equally important, he and Always Dreaming are the only two colts with true early speed.  The son of Uncle Mo figures to be on or near the lead.  Although his jockey is a bit of an unknown, he should be in good position to turn the tables on Classic Empire.  With a little luck, he might even steal the whole race – and given the disparity in odds, I'll likely have my money on a steal.  Classic Empire (3-1) has had a rough spring and he had a rough trip in the Derby. He was bumped early and forced wide before rallying to finish fourth, and he really was the only horse closing wide down the stretch over a track that may have favored insider runners.  He has been further back early in each of his last two races, but in the Preakness he figures to get his preferred trip a little closer to the early lead.  You can make a case that he is finally back on track and sitting on a big one here, but I'm not convinced.  I expect the son of Pioneer of the Nile finish closer to Always Dreaming than he did in the Derby, but I don’t think he wins it.  Cloud Computing (12-1) looks like a talented runner for Chad Brown, but asking him to win the Preakness in only his 4th career start, with only one prior win, is a lot to ask.  Still, he figures to sit a good trip on the insider behind the early leaders, and the son of Maclean's Music may be good enough to hit the board.  Lookin at Lee (10-1) finished strongly for 2d in the Derby as Corey Lanerie did his best Calvin Borel rail-skimming impersonation.  He also closed strongly to be third in the Arkansas Derby.  The son of Lookin at Lucky figures to drop back to last and make his run.  I just don't think he is going to get the pace setup he needs to challenge for the win – but he certainly has a chance to hit the board.  Good luck! 

 

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This Derby is tough enough without the added variable of a potential wet or muddy track but we will do the best we can.  Top selection McCraken (5-1) has displayed a quick turn of foot and the mid-pack closing style that would seem to be a good fit in this race.  He suffered his only career loss in a disappointing effort in the Blue Grass Stakes last time out, but he had missed some training time with a mild issue prior to that race.  And even in defeat, the son of Ghostzapper overcame a less than ideal trip and showed his turn of foot, quickly rallying to the leaders at the top of the stretch before flattening out.  Prior to that outing, he had done nothing wrong, winning his first four races and improving each time out.  He is reportedly training well and in think he runs them all down on Saturday.  Gunnevera (15-1) is a deep closer who, unlike some of the other entrants, will relish the distance.  He'll be running fastest late under champion jockey JJ Castellano. 15-1 would be quite an overlay and I'd expect more like 8-1 or 10-1.  Irish War Cry (6-1) figures to get a good outside stalking trip and will look to get first run on the closers.  It would be a great story of jockey Rajiv Maragh could win the Derby after coming back from a serious injury which cost him over a year of riding.  Two-year old champion Classic Empire (4-1) has had an eventful spring, but he seems to be back on track after his win in the Arkansas Derby. I just wonder if he is ready for a peak effort.  There are many other horses who have license to be competitive (Always Dreaming, Hence, Tapwrit and even 50-1 Sonneteer), but these are my top four,

 

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4. Conquest Mo Money 

 

4. Senior Investment 

 

 

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In only his second career race, Cloud Computing (5-2) ran a strong 2d over this track in the Gotham Stakes.  The son of Maclean's Music tracked a hot pace and while he was no match for winner J Boys Echo (entered in the Blue Grass Stakes today), he finished well clear of everyone else. With a month off to recover from that effort, he figured to be tough in here for Chad Brown.  Irish War Cry (7-2) was a big disappointment as the beaten favorite in the Fountain of Youth after wiring the field in the Holy Bull Stakes. The son of Curlin should bounce back with a better effort this time for Graham Motion.  Battalion Runner (2-1) is yet another lightly raced Todd Pletcher trainee with a 2- race win streak who tries stakes runners for the first time.  The son of Unbridled's Song will have to step up as the favorite, but it seems like everyone of Pletcher's runners have won of late.  If you are looking for a longshots for the exotics, try the other Pletcher horse, Bonus Points (20-1), who figures to be ignored in the wagering but finished only three lengths behind J Boys Echo in the Withers, who ran a big one his next time out.  Mo Town (6-1) tries to rebound for Tony Dutrow after a poor showing as a beaten favorite in the Risen Star Stakes

4. Bonus Points

I am looking at the improving Tapwrit (5-2) to turn the tables on McCracken today.  The son of Tapit ran a strong second to McCraken in his first stakes race and then followed it up with an impressive win in the Tampa Bay Stakes when McCraken missed that race.  Todd Pletcher gets these 3-year olds good in a hurry and when they get good they tend to stay good.  J Boys Echo (7-2) had a good trip when he won the Gotham Stakes, but the son of Mineshaft looked great running away from that field. The Dale Romans trainee has as good a chance to win this as Tapwrit and will probably offer slightly more value.  McCraken (7-5) may still be the most likely Kentucky Derby winner - he just might be a little short here and the pace dynamics may not help him.  I will try to beat the son of Ghostzapper as the favorite this time.  Practical Joke (7-2) may have been a little short when he finished second in the Fountain of Youth and he is no doubt talented.  The son of Into Mischief just hasn't proven that he is as good a router as he is a sprinter/miler.  Wild Shot (15-1) figures to have a clear lead early and could try to steak it, but I'm not sure he is good enough.

4. Practical Joke

Iliad (7-2) ran very well to be 2d to the ultra-impressive Mastery last time out.  With Mastery unfortunately injured, Iliad moves to the front of the California class.  The son of Ghostzappsr figures to improve off his first stakes try, which was also his first route try for trainer Doug O'Neill. Like the Blue Grass stakes, this race is really stacked with talented 3-year olds, but this is a much bigger field (13 horses vs. 7 in the Blue Grass). For second and third place, I will go with two colts who return to Santa Anita after shipping to Oaklawn Park and running miserably in the Arkansas Derby - I think both can bounce back with the return to their home track.  American Anthem (5-1) ran a game 2d in the Sham stakes and ran poorly with a wide trip in Arkansas off a 2-month layoff.  The son of Bodemeister appears to be training well and should run a good one for trainer Bob Baffert.  Similarly, Royal Mo (10-1) flopped in Arkansas after he ran a good one at Santa Anita, wiring the field in the Rebel Stakes.  Look for better performance here for the son of Uncle Mo.

1. Iliad

2. American Anthem

3. Royal Mo

Gunnevera (9-5) was impressive rallying from far back to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes and return to Gulfstream for the Florida Derby. The extra 1/16th of a mile should suit the son of Dialed In just fine and there is plenty of speed to set it up for his late rally. The 11 post is no picnic but Castellano should avoid problems by just dropping over to the rail at the start.  Look for Gunnevera to run by them all in mid-stretch.  State of Honor (8-1) has had trouble finding the winners' circle but he's hit the board in 5 straight.  The son of To Honor and Serve was no match for McCracken or Tapwrit in his two stakes tries in Tampa, but finished clear of everyone else both times.  He figures to be on or near the lead - blinkers off suggests he might try to sit the pocket trip this time - and he could add some value to the exacta.  Three Rules (8-1) ran well to hold third in the Fountain of Youth after setting a brisk pace, but I'm not sure the extra 1/16th of a mile will help the son of Gone Astray, who seems to be better sprinting.  Always Dreaming (4-1), a son of Bodemeister, is another impressive Todd Pletcher trainee light on experience who comes in off easy victories against weaker.  Pletcher has been winning with these types in similar races and it would be no surprise if he runs well here.

4. Always Dreaming

Guest Suite (4-1) finished a disappointing 4th in the Risen Star Stakes, but according to his Beyer speed figures, the son of Quality Road has improved each race including that last one.  With continued improvement, he could turn the tables on some of his competition. I will give him another chance here.  Girvin (8-5) won the Risen Star in just his 3rd career start.  He certainly looked good doing it, but he had an excellent trip.  The son of Tale of Ekati is expected to be a big favorite and at that price he will need to prove to me that it was more than just the trip.  Senior Investment (12-1) may be a bit of an overlay shipping in off of three straight wins (one in which he was disqualified) against weaker in which he finished strongly each time. The son of Discreetly Mine might be one to spice up the exotic wagers.  Patch (9-2) is yet another lightly raced Pletcher runner - he steps up in class off his maiden victory.  But it's dangerous to count out any of Pletcher's runners and this son of Union Rags figured to work out a good tracking trip just behind the early speed.  Speaking of early speed, Steve Assmussen is reportedly expecting big things put of Local Hero, who finished third in the Risen Star in his first stakes try.  But the way the son of Hard Spun came back to the field after gaining a clear early lead,  I'm not sure the extra 1/16 of a mile will be a plus for him.

1. Guest Suite

2. Girvin

3. Senior Investment

4. Patch

5. Local Hero

In the midst of March Madness, the road takes us to Oaklawn Park in Arkansas for the Rebel Stakes, the prep for the Arkansas Derby.  A full field of eleven with a wealth of early speed makes for an interesting race.  I'm going with Petrov (9-2) who comes into the race having run second three straight times.  He gamely chased the lone speed in his last two, failing to catch Uncontested in the Smarty Jones and then passing him in the Southwest only to be run down by One Liner.  This is only his fifth career start and the son of Flatter has room to improve. I also expect a quicker and more contested pace here, as favorite American Anthem, Malagacy and Uncontested are likely to hook up early.  Look for Jose Ortiz to sit behind the speed and run them down late. Lookin At Lee (15-1) was disappointing in his first start as a three-year old, but his deep closing style may help him here and he could improve second off the layoff. Interesting that jockey Ricardo Santana chooses to ride him instead of Untrapped. American Anthem (2-1) is the well-hyped favorite in making his third career start for the Baffert/Smith team. He battled Gormely gamely to lose by just a neck last out in the Sham Stakes. He could be special but lacks seasoning and may get caught in the early speed duel. Malagacy (4-1) is 2 for 2 for Todd Pletcher, both impressive sprint wins. He now stretches out and faces the same speed dual concern as American Anthem. He also has a pretty lousy name and not one I want to scream down the stretch. Untrapped (8-1) ships in after running second in two straight stakes races in Louisiana and could make his presence felt.

In the midst of March Madness, the road takes us to Oaklawn Park in Arkansas for the Rebel Stakes, the prep for the Arkansas Derby.  A full field of eleven with a wealth of early speed makes for an interesting race.  I'm going with Petrov (9-2) who comes into the race having run second three straight times.  He gamely chased the lone speed in his last two, failing to catch Uncontested in the Smarty Jones and then passing him in the Southwest only to be run down by One Liner.  This is only his fifth career start and the son of Flatter has room to improve. I also expect a quicker and more contested pace here, as favorite American Anthem, Malagacy and Uncontested are likely to hook up early.  Look for Jose Ortiz to sit behind the speed and run them down late. Lookin At Lee (15-1) was disappointing in his first start as a three-year old, but his deep closing style may help him here and he could improve second off the layoff. Interesting that jockey Ricardo Santana chooses to ride him instead of Untrapped. American Anthem (2-1) is the well-hyped favorite in making his third career start for the Baffert/Smith team. He battled Gormely gamely to lose by just a neck last out in the Sham Stakes. He could be special but lacks seasoning and may get caught in the early speed duel. Malagacy (4-1) is 2 for 2 for Todd Pletcher, both impressive sprint wins. He now stretches out and faces the same speed dual concern as American Anthem. He also has a pretty lousy name and not one I want to scream down the stretch. Untrapped (8-1) ships in after running second in two straight stakes races in Louisiana and could make his presence felt.

1. Petrov

2. Lookin at Lee

3. American Anthem

4. Malagacy

5. Untrapped

We look West to California and Santa Anita as three very talented colts stand out over the rest of the field with any one of them being capable of running a big one.  Bob Baffert brings undefeated Mastery (6-5) back to the races for his three-year old debut.  The son of Candy Ride was odds on in each of his three impressive wins last season.  His workouts say he is ready to go and he looks like another star for the Baffert/Mike Smith team.  At 6-5 ML. he doesn't offer much value but I expect him to run a strong one.  Gormley (9-5) returns from a couple month layoff after winning the Sham Stakes for trainer John Sheriffs.  The son of Malibu Moon has one three times, two of them in Grade 1 stakes, with his only loss a tough trip run in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.  Expect Victor Espinoza to have him ready for another stretch battle.  Finally, Iliad (5-2), who moved from the Baffert barn to Doug O'Neill's barn before his last race, is super fast and fresh off a win in the San Vincente stakes.  The son of Ghostzapper is trying a route for the first time and giving up some seasoning to the other two but he could be any kind of talent.  I expect Iliad to grab the lead and take them as far as he can go.  This should be an exciting race, but the Baffert/Smith team have the track record and Gormley has the seasoning and experience, so I have to put those two on top.

4.  Ann Arbor Eddie (Go Blue)

The absence of McCraken leaves the Tampa Bay Derby short of star power and Todd Pletcher looks to have a strong hand.  Tapwrit (3-1) ran an impressive second to McCraken in the Sam Davis; finishing with good energy in his first try beyond a mile.  With more improvement, the son of Tapit appears as the one to beat for Pletcher and Jose Ortiz.  Sonic Mule (6-1), the other Pletcher entry, comes into this race after running third in the Swale.  He may be better sprinting but has run well at a mile and shows up every time.  The son of Distorted Humor could surprise them here.  No Dozing (6-1) was disappointing as our selection in the Sam Davis in his first start as a three-year old.  We'll give him one more chance here, but he needs to step up his game.  Wild Shot (5-1) was 4^th in the Sam Davis off a wide trip.  He would probably prefer to be closer to the lead then he was last race.  But with speed inside him again, he may have a tough time getting the trip he wants.  Beasley (9-2) and State of Honor (4-1) figure to spar with some others near the lead.  That will hurt their chances, although they both have shown some promise.

 

4.  Wild Shot

 

This week, the Road to the Triple Crown takes us to Gulfstream Park in Florida for the Fountain of Youth Stakes, the prep for the Florida Derby and also features a stop in New York at Aqueduct for the Gotham Stakes, the prep for the Wood Memorial Stakes. 

 

In the Fountain of Youth, Practical Joke (3-1) returns to the races to make his 3-year old debut for Chad Brown.  When last seen, he ran a respectable third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Stakes behind Classic Empire and the unfortunately retired Not This Time.  Prior to that he had reeled off back to back Grade 1 wins in the Champagne and Hopeful Stakes in New York.  The son of Into Mischief is easily the most accomplished runner in this field and Brown's best hope for a Derby starter.  There may be legitimate questions about whether he can get the Derby distance but he should be able to handle the 1 1/16 miles required this Saturday and I expect him to come back running strongly.  Made You Look (10-1) has run all six of his career races on turf, with 3 wins of which two of them were stakes races.  Todd Pletcher must have looked at this field and saw little to fear in deciding to try the son of More Than Ready on the dirt. He has shown an impressive turn of foot, finishing strongly in his races and some More Than Ready colts to take to the dirt just fine.  Johnny Velasquez rides for Pletcher - and like the two of them, I think he has a legitimate chance in this race. Favorite Irish War Cry (5-2) was impressive wiring the field for Graham Motion in the Holy Bull Stakes but he was all alone on the lead and after Classic Empire didn't fire, it's not clear he had too much to beat.  He will have to show me again.  Gunnevera (7-2) tried but could not catch Irish War Cry last out. With more speed in this race, the closer has a chance to turn the tables. Finally, Three Rules (12-1) looks like he might be a talented sprinter, but this is a tough spot to try stretching out.

4.  Gunnerva

 

In the Gotham Stakes, El Areeb (6-5) returns after dominating the Jerome and Withers Stakes over the Aqueduct track.  It doesn't look like any of the locals can beat him.  That leaves us with two shippers to consider.  So Conflated (8-1) ships in from California for Doug O'Neill who does occasionally have success shipping to New York for these races.  The son of Eskendereya won the California Derby over the synthetic surface and his connections decided to skip the El Camino Real and try this race instead. He is interesting but his dirt track ability is a mystery.   Action Everyday (10-1) ships in for Todd Pletcher after going 2-2 in Tampa to start his career.  The son of the Factor will have to run faster here, but Pletcher knows a thing or too about picking the right spots for his horses in New York.  He puts the blinkers on here and Rajiv Maragh, making a strong comeback from serious injury, gets the mount; thus making him the sentimental choice. In truth, it looks like El Areeb has a significant advantage, but he is likely to be bet to below even money odds.  Under the circumstances, I would recommend trying to beat him with one of the shippers, and I'll go with Action Everyday, although I don't think he will be near the 10-1 opening odds.

 

This week, the Road to the Triple Crown takes us to New Orleans during the midst of Mardi Gras for the Risen Star Stakes.  It therefore seems appropriate for this week's picks to abide by that old adage of "dance with the one who brung ya."

 

Guest Suite (6-1) comes into the race off of a nice win in the LeComte Stakes at the Fair Grounds last month.  He will have to run faster to win here, but he has room to improve, and I'll go with him again here.  I don't expect he'll be 6-1 when the bell rings but if he is he is worth a wager as he should get a nice honest pace to run into here.  With a good performance today, this son of Quality Road might be worthy of a wager in the Kentucky Derby futures pool as well.  Local Hero (4-1) was just that last time out, as he broke his maiden with an ultra-impressive 7+ length win over the track.  This is a big jump up in class and while he figures to be on the lead again, he also figures to face some pace pressure.  This son of Hard Spun could be any kind but will have to be extremely sharp to win this one.  Mo Town (7-2) ships in for Tony Dutrow and Johnny Velasquez following a win in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct.  The son of Uncle Mo is the one to beat and figures to get a good stalking trip here.  It's not clear that he beat much in the Remsen and given he is the morning line favorite, I will look elsewhere for the win.  Shareholder Value (15-1) and Untrapped (10-1) both ran well behind Guest Suite, finishing 3^rd and 5th in the LeComte.  Untrapped, son of Trappe Shot, is lightly raced and has room to improve. Shareholder Value, another Uncle Mo, was bumped early and late in the LeComte or he may have finished better than 5^th.  Use these two in your exotic wagers to boost your odds.  Finally, watch out for Girvin (6-1) as the lightly raced son of Tale of Ekati goes turf to dirt for Joe Sharp.

4.  Shareholder Value

5.  Untrapped

In the Southwest Stakes, I'm looking at Lookin At Lee (8-1) who raced in graded stakes company last year as a 2-year old, running well against the likes of top 2-year old champion Classic Empire and Not This Time.  The son of Lookin At Lucky makes his 3-year old debut for trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr.  He lacked early speed in his last three races but finished well and I'm looking for a his trip to be more forward placed behind an honest pace to improve his chances. Todd Pletcher's One Liner (7-2) steps up and stretches out after winning his first two races.  As with all of Pletcher's young horses, he could be dangerous. Petrov (5-1) chasing Uncontested for second in the Smarty Jones and could turn the tables on him here. The morning line favorite, Uncontested (5-2) comes off a wire to wire victory in the Smarty Jones Stakes over this same Oaklawn Park oval. His victory was over a sloppy surface and he is more than likely to face early pressure in this race.  I don't trust Channing Hill enough to control the pace and save enough for the stretch run.  The son of Tiz Wonderful could hit the board but I don't like him to win at low odds. Finally, Chief Know it All (12-1), who will begin outside, ran an improved race in his 3-year old debut.  If he can work out a trip, he might have a chance to hit the board

4.  Uncontested (5-2)

5.  Chief Know it All (12-1)

The Road to the Triple Crown take us to San Francisco and Golden Gate Fields on Saturday for the El Camino Real Derby, to be contested at 1 1/8 over the synthetic surface.  

Ann Arbor Eddie (2-1), has won three of four races in his career. All three wins were against restricted Cal breds, including two stakes wins and a third against open stakes company at Delmar.  The Doug O'Neill runner and son of Square Eddie faces open company again and also trying the synthetic surface for the first time.  Square Eddie ran 2nd in the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita back when it was still synthetic, so I feel optimistic that Ann Arbor Eddie can handle this surface. In addition, Ann Arbor Eddie figures to work out a good trip without much early speed and will sit on or near the lead. He's my top pick. Of the local runners, More Power to Him (6-1) looks to be the most dangerous.  He's been solid with two wins, a second and a third in four starts over the Golden Gate track, most recently finishing a solid second in the California Derby.   The son of Slew's Tiznow will be a threat in this one as well, especially if neither of the favorites likes the synthetic surface. The morning line favorite, Sheer Flattery (7-5) for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer enters this race following a 3rd place finish in the Robert B Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita.  This son of Flatter is facing a less accomplished group here but also trying synthetic for the first time. His 3rd place finish in Robert B Lewis was not visually impressive even while boasting the best last out Beyer.  Sheer Flattery didn't do much running until the end of the stretch when he belatedly rallied to almost grab second place, but was never a threat to the winner, finishing almost 4 lengths back.  He also hasn't shown much of a winning instinct in taking 4 attempts before breaking his maiden.