KY Derby

BELMONT STAKES (Belmont Race Track, Race 11, 3:37 PM PDT June 11): The third and final jewel of the Triple Crown runs on Saturday, Jun 11. Will Exaggerator stamp himself as the top three year old in the country in 2016? Our expert Handicapper, Ted Keyes shares his analysis........

Exaggerator (9-5), whom I picked over Nyquist in the Preakness is back following his impressive win in Maryland. He's run three terrific races in a row starting with his win in the Santa Anita Derby, followed by his rallying 2nd in the Derby and culminating with his dominating win in the Preakness. Can he keep the string of terrific performances going? Or perhaps the more appropriate question – is he a good bet at less than 2-1 to win? On paper, he is a deserving favorite but there are too many question marks and thus, I plan to look elsewhere for the winner. It is difficult to keep a horse in peak form over a sustained stretch of races; this is not to say Exaggerator won't run well, but I'm not confident he's sitting on his best effort. Second, jockey Kent Desormeaux is a an aggressive rider, which is often a positive, but I'm concerned he lacks the patience for Belmont and may move Exaggerator too confidently and too soon. Finally, this is a grueling 1.5 mile that he'll be running for his first and likely last time in his career. He has strong enough pedigree to suggest that may not be a problem, but you never know until you try.

I like Creator (10-1) to win!  Although, a deep closer, he's not a plodder. He showed during his Arkansas Derby win that he can weave through traffic. Unfortunately, during the Kentucky Derby, he got stuck in traffic, was bumped and lost all chance to make his run. This is not to say we would have won the Derby but he would have finished much better than 13th, and I am ready to give him another chance with some time off since the Derby. He is reportedly training well and gets a positive jockey switch to Irad Ortiz. Look for him to be charging down the stretch.

Stradivari (5-1) ran a credible race to finish 4th in the Preakness following a sharp move up in class . He figures to get a good stalking trip behind the early leader, who is likely to be Gettysburg. Again, I think it is asking a lot to expect Stradivari to win, but I think he will put in another good run.

Suddenbreakingnews (10-1) closed late for 5th in the Kentucky Derby and has rested for the past five weeks. He is a deep closer but appears less agile than Creator, often swinging very wide and running very late to gain a small piece of the purse. Creator has finished ahead of him twice, but Suddenbreakingnews finished better in the Derby. I expect him to close for 3rd or 4th.

I liked Destin (6-1) coming into the Kentucky Derby but he ran like a horse that needed a race coming off a layoff, looming briefly before fading to 6th. With additional time off, I'm unsure what to think about him. He has talent but I lack confidence he'll get the distance. Look for him to emerge later in the year.

1. Creator (10-1)

2. Exaggerator (9-5)

3. Stradivari (5-1)

4. Suddenbreakingnews (10-1)

5. Destin (6-1)

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PREAKNESS STAKES (Pimlico Race Course, Race 13, 3:45 PM PDT May 21): The second jewel of the Triple Crown runs on Saturday, May 21. Will Nyquist repeat his effort from Churchill Downs and make his bid for the Triple Crown in 2016? Our expert Handicapper, Ted Keyes shares his analysis........

Nyquist was excellent in the Derby and he has done nothing wrong but 3-5 M/L odds significantly overstates the likelihood that he will win the Preakness. He has a great chance to win but there is also a good chance he finally loses to Exaggerator (3-1) or Stradivari (8-1); both horses offering much better value. Stradivari (8-1) simply annihilated a field of allowance level 3-year olds in his last race, which was only his third and first start of the year. This is a very big step up in class. But if you watch the race, he won drawing away with ease by 14+ lengths at a distance of 1 1/8 miles. Todd Pletcher is one of the best trainers, and he doesn't often move a horse up in class this dramatically – this horse could be any kind of good. I will be surprised if he is not very competitive in the Preakness, but it is asking a lot for him to actually win. Exaggerator (3-1) on the other hand, ran an enormous race to win the Santa Anita Derby and then, to show that was not a fluke, came charging down the stretch in the Kentucky Derby to finish a strong 2d. Yes he's lost to Nyquist several times but he's in peak form and could improve still further. If you watch the end of the Derby, the jockey eased up a bit near the end when it was apparent he could not win – he had plenty left. Look for Kent D. to keep him just a bit closer in the Preakness. And look for Exaggerator to come out on top this time.:

1. Exaggerator (3-1)
2. Nyquist (3-1)
3. Stradivari (8-1)

KENTUCKY DERBY (Churchill Downs, Race 12, 3:34 PM PDT May 7): This is the race we've anticipated for the past several months. Today is the Day when one of these magnificent 3 Year Olds will take home the Roses. Who will it be? Our expert Handicapper, Ted Keyes shares his analysis........

I could make a case for about a dozen horses in the Derby, but it's time to make a decision and take a stand. First, I am against the deep closers this year and there are some attractive ones in Creator, Mo Tom and Suddenbreakingnews. However, I expect the pace will be honest this year which favors those on or near the lead. I also believe these are the best horses today. Nyquist (3-1) is undefeated and a deserving favorite. But it's hard to play 3-1 on a horse in a 20-horse field when none have ever run this far. I won't be surprised if Nyquist gets the job done but I'm taking Outwork (15-1) to win. Like Nyquist, Outwork projects to be on or near the lead, most likely stalking Danzig Candy. He is a lightly raced and improving colt ready to show his best yet. In his first start this year and first time beyond a mile, he gamely fought his stablemate Destin throughout the stretch before relinquishing to 2d (Tampa Bay Derby). I also think very highly of Destin, so this becomes a key race - both Destin and Outwork are trained by Todd Pletcher. In Outwork's second start, he pressed the pace all the way and gamely held on to win (Wood Memorial Stakes). He is a big horse with a brilliant and rising Sire in Uncle Mo (same as Nyquist) that was very talented with stamina from his Dam's side (her Dad was Empire Maker). Also, this is what the Daily Racing Form clocker had to say about how Outwork looked this week:

"OUTWORK – He’s regularly made the best appearance of any member of this field. A big, strapping colt with a long, impressive stride, he also turned in arguably the most eye-catching final Derby prep, finishing strong and galloping out with excellent energy here last weekend. Lightly raced son of Uncle Mo continues to improve with every start and is another who gives every indication that he’s going to peak on Derby Day."

So look for Outwork to get a classic Johnny V stalking ride and battle Nyquist to the finish. Some others that will be on my tickets: Destin (15-1) and Whitmore (20-1) figure to be in the first flight of closers and will be dangerous, especially if the pace is faster than I am projecting. Mohaymen (10-1) figures to also get a close up stalking trip and could return to previous form despite lacking an excuse for his loss in the Florida Derby to Nyquist. Finally, Gun Runner (10-1) has made a habit of working out good trips and with his tactical speed he is looking at another nice rail trip here.

1. Outwork (15-1)
2. Nyquist (3-1)
3. Destin (15-1)
4. Whitmore (20-1)
5. Mohaymen (10-1)/ Gun Runner (10-1)

Good luck to all.

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Arkansas Derby (Aqueduct, Race 11 - Apr 16): This is solid prep race with a competitive field. I'm sticking with Whitmore (9-2) one more time. He has run 2d in two Arkansas preps for this race – the Southwest Stakes and the Rebel Stakes. Each time, he unleashed an impressive move around the turn and looked like a winner at the top of the stretch. In the Southwest, he was passed by Suddenbreakingnews (5-1) and in the Rebel Stakes was repelled by Cupid (2-1). Maybe he doesn't want to run this far or it maybe it's just a matter of maturity and timing. Jockey Irad Ortiz rides him for the 2d time in a row and I expect Irad now knows how to time his winning move. Cupid (2-1) was very impressive winning the Rebel Stakes and a deserving favorite for trainer Bob Baffert, who seems to win the Arkansas Derby every year. He has an outside post and his last effort may have taken something out of him. At short odds of less than 2-1, I'm looking to beat him although he's a logical choice. There are a few other possibilities, including Creator (10-1) who rallied from far back to finish 3rd behind the top 2 in the Rebel Stakes, out finishing Suddenbreakingnews who was a disappointing 5th after winning the Southwest Stakes. Both of these have license to improve and will be closing ground in the stretch. Unbridled Outlaw (10-1) is also worth a look. He finished up the track in the Breeders Cup Juvenile stakes last fall, but returned with a sharp 2d against older horses in his first race this year. Now he faces fellow 3-year olds again and could make his presence felt.

Lexington Stakes (Santa Anita Park, Race 9 - Apr 16): The Lexington has the look of a second tier prep as evidenced by the Grade III designation. Favored Swipe (9-5) was 2d in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last fall but for has not raced since then. His main competition is Bob Baffert's Collected (2-1), who rebounded from a poor effort as the favorite in the Southwest Stakes to win an allowance race at Sunland in solid fashion. Riker (6-1) was a disappointment in the Tampa Bay Derby, his first race after finishing a relatively close 6th in the Breeders Cup juvenile. Other possibilities include Direct Message (15-1) and Big Squeeze (101), each of whom enters off impressive maiden wins. I am going to go with Direct Message first. Direct Message ran a troubled trip in his debut at Saratoga and then ran poorly next out; however, it turns out that race was very strong, including Matt King Coal, recently third in the Wood Memorial Stakes. Following that race, Direct Message was sent to Florida where he ran a solid 2d and then finally broke his maiden with a sharp effort. He is 15-1 on the morning line odds. At the price, and he should be no less than 10-1 for Tom Albertrani and Louis Saez, I can't resist giving him the nod over this less than stellar.

Wood Memorial (Aqueduct, Race 10 - Apr 9): A wide open race in which I could make a strong case for 6 of the 8 entrants. My top pick is Outwork (5-2), second choice in the Morning Line odds. Outwork ran a terrific 2nd to Destin in the Tampa Bay Derby last out, and Destin is a legitimate good horse. That was just Outwork's third race and first time stretching out beyond a mile. Todd Pletcher's horses tend to improve quickly at this time of year. With Johnny Velasquez aboard, look for Outwork to be there at the finish. In terms of a long shot, I like Adventist (10-1) who ran greenly in spots during the Gotham Stakes but still managed to rally for third when running on the outside of on an inside-biased track. I also like Tale of S'avall (20-1), who broke slowly in the Tampa Bay Derby and then flattened out to finish 5th after making a brief rally. Favored Shagaf (2-1) is also a legit possibility off his win in the Gotham Stakes but he had a good trip and still had to work hard to get up in deep stretch. Likewise, speedy Matt King Coal (3-1) has a solid chance but I'm always skeptical of horses that wire the field during the winter at Aqueduct. He could wire this field too, but at 3-1 or less, he is going to have to prove it to me.

Blue Grass Stakes (Keenland, Race 10 - Apr 9): My Man Sam (10-1), trained by Chad Brown, rallied for second in an allowance race last out at Aqueduct to finish within a length of Matt King Coal and I was impressed in his late run to the wire. Despite the fact that he is marooned from the #14 post, I like him on top in the Blue Grass Stakes. Favored Zulu (5-2) is my second choice and I will be boxing this exacta with My Man Sam. In his first start stretching out over a mile, Zulu gave Mohaymen a surprisingly tough batter when running 2d in the Fountain of Youth stakes. Another Pletcher-trained youngster, he has license to improve here. I placed him second because due to other early speed in this race, which might result in a contested trip. To complete the triple, I'm looking for longshot Cherry Wine (12-1) to close for third.

Santa Anita Stakes (Santa Anita Park, Race 8 - Apr 9): This shapes up to be a three horse battle between the top three finishers from the San Felipe. Danzig Candy (9-5) ran a terrific race in the San Felipe in leading at every call from start to finish. He seems logical but like the Blue Grass, there is a lot of other early speed here and he may not make an easy lead. As a result, the race sets up better for Mor Spirit (8-5), who appeared to be goofing around in the San Felipe before rallying for 2d. Either one, but I lean slightly toward Mor Spirit due to the race dynamics and the fact that he is trained by Bob Baffert and will be ridden by Gary Stevens, each of whom has a terrific record in the Santa Anita Derby. Exaggerator (4-1) again appears to be the best of the rest.

Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park, Race 14 - Apr 2): Rarely do the two top candidates meet in a prep race, but we are in luck this year. Two-year old champion and undefeated Nyquist (6-5) takes on undefeated Mohaymen (1-1) in a virtual match race. Although there are 10 horses in the race, no one else is listed at under 15-1, and Fellowship (15-1) has been soundly beaten by Mohaymen twice in a row. Who wins this race? I like Mohaymen. He seems to be winning with another gear in reserve. But this will be a stern test and he will certainly have to use that other gear if he is going to beat Nyquist. I also like that Mohaymen has run two routes already this year, while Nyquist's only race since the fall was a sprint. Looking for a long shot. Dale Roman's enters Takeitotheedge (20-1) off an impressive first out maiden win. He is likely to be on the lead. I doubt the two big guns will let him get away, but speed is always dangerous and Romans has been known to win big races with longshots now and then.

Spiral Stakes (Turfway Park, Race 10 - Apr 2): This race is on the polytrack, so it's never too clear whether dirt form will transfer or whether then polytrack form will transfer to the dirt. The two ML favorites, Airoforce (3-1) and Azar (5-1) are unproven on polytrack. I am going with Kasseopia, who ran a solid third on the polytrack in the El Camino Real at Golden Gate Park after breaking slowly. He goes 2d time out for Graham Motion. Some other longer odds horses who look to have a chance are Surgical Strike (12-1) and Don't Be Salty (8-1), both of whom are also proven on polytrack.

Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds, Race 10 - Mar 26):The LA Derby appears to be a rematch of the Risen Star Derby with seven returnees including the top three finishers. Gun Runner (3-1) won the Risen Star Derby in his first start since November and brings room for improvement for Steve Asmussen. He benefited from an inside trip on a reportedly speed favoring track and a strong ride from Florent Geroux. He moved early and then held to the wire. I see this son of Candy Ride as an underlay at 3-1. Mo Tom (5-2), third in the Risen Star Derby, is the early ML favorite. He was troubled making his usual late run in the Risen Star and checked sharply at the top of the stretch before re-rallying impressively to finish less than 2 lengths behind. This son of Uncle Mo will be closing strongly again in the LA Derby. Rounding out the top three from the Risen Star was place horse Forevamo (10-1), also a son of Uncle Mo in a bit of a surprise, but like Gun Runner and Mo Tom, he also benefited from an inside trip. This week, he is marooned in the 11-post and will need to show improvement to hit the board.

Not surprisingly, I like out of town shipper Greenpointcrusader (7-2) in this race. In his first start since last October, Greenpointcrusader chased the pace in the Holy Bull and was no match for Mohaymen. However, he held for place and while it looked like he was running evenly down the stretch, the clock shows he finished quickly. This son of Bernadini may have needed the race off the layoff. There is no shame in losing to Mohaymen, who would be an easy and prohibitive favorite if entered today. With Johnny Velasquez back for a second consecutive trip, I expect he will move forward.

My picks are therefore Greenpointcrusader on top in the LA Derby with Mo Tom and Gun Runner to fill out the place and show but they don't expect much value in the exotics. For your exotics, consider some other possible longshots plays, including Battery (10-1) stepping up from an allowance win for Todd Pletcher and Conquest Windycity (15-1) doing the same for Mark Casse. Both will need to improve and run faster, but they are lightly-raced well-bred colts moving up for good trainers.

Rebel Stakes (Oaklawn Park, Race 10 - Mar 19):The main players in the Rebel Stakes are the three ML favorites - Suddenbreakingnews (3-1); Cupid (7-2) and Whitmore (7-2). Suddenbreakingnews won the Southwest Stakes for local trainer Donnie Van Hemel in his last start with an impressive last to first move at the top of the stretch. That's the son of Mineshaft's preferred style and he has three wins and three seconds in six tries to show for it. There figures to be enough early pace in this race so he will likely sit back and make a big run. Bob Baffert ships in Cupid from California to challenge him and Baffert has had terrific success shipping in to Oaklawn for Derby preps over the last few years. I don't know the numbers offhand, but American Pharoah (you remember him) is just one of several Baffert runners who have taken the Arkansas path to the KY Derby. Bodemeister was another. Cupid is a $900K Tabor-owned colt who took three tries to break his maiden, but he did so in style last out at Santa Anita, ridden out to win by more than 5 lengths in his first try stretching out. Given his past success here, it would be no surprise if Cupid is good enough and he will likely be well supported at the windows. Whitmore ran 2d to Suddenbreakingnews last out, but his trip was more eventful. Steadied and shuffled back along the inside early, he worked his way clear and then circled the field 4-5 wide around the turn, took the lead in mid-stretch and then tired a bit late, while Suddenbreakingnews ran by him to win by over 2 lengths. Nevertheless, that was only Whitmore's 4th race, 2d of the year and first try stretching out on a dry track. This Pleasantly Perfect colt has license to improve for Ron Moquett. He gets a jockey change to Irad Ortiz from Mike Smith, which despite Smith's successes, I still count as a positive change outside of California, where Smith makes his home. We'll make Whitmore our top selection for this race. If you want to play him exotics, use him with the other two mentioned above. Other to consider: American Dubai (12-1) contested the pace and held well for third in the Southwest. He does face others with early speed again here, but if he works out a decent trip and/or improves, he could hit the board again at a price .

Tampa Bay Derby (Race 11): The big names in the Tampa Bay Derby are Brody's Cause (5-2) and Destin (9-2). Brody's Cause was third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year and makes his 2016 debut for Romans/Lanerie.  Destin looked good winning the Sam Davis and has room to move forward for Pletcher/Castellano.  I can't argue with anyone putting him on top - he might be the most likely winner.  I plan to take a flyer with Tale of S'avall (12-1).  This Tale of Ekati colt was an impressive winner first out for Barclay Tagg at Saratoga last summer.  Tagg thought enough of him to run him in the G1 Champagne where he took plenty of money (4-1) but tired to 5th after setting a contested pace in the slop.  In his first start since, he'll have to win despite Bravo, but at 12-1, he is worth a shot or at least use him in exotics.  Another one to watch in here is Economic Model (5-1), who makes his 2d start of the year and 3rd over all and stretches out for the first time for Chad Brown and Irad.  I won't be surprised if he runs well.

San Felipe Stakes GII (Race 7): Santa Anita flaunts an exciting card that features the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap and Grade II San Felipe. The big names are Mor Spirit and Exaggerator.  Mor Spirit, displayed a nice closing kick winning the RB Lewis last out and is Baffert's best chance at the smelling the roses this year.  He will be tough here.  Exaggerator comes off a loss to Nyquist at 7F when they were both making their seasonal debuts. This grinder suits up for Desormeaux/Desormeaux.  Of the two, I prefer Mor Spirit with Gary Stevens aboard.  Another one to watch in here is Danzig Candy.  He comes off back to back wire to wire wins in maiden and allowance races and steps up and stretches out here for Cliff Sise with Mike Smith up.  There is  some other speed in here, but if the price is right he might be worth a flyer or worth using in exotics.

Fountain of Youth Stakes (Race 12): Favored Mohaymen (6-5) looms the horse to beat as he should be able to work out a decent trip behind the early speed. There is ample enough early speed in here and the biggest challenger is probably the speediest too. Awesome Banner (4-1) fresh off an impressive victory in the 7f Swale Stakes is likely to bounce out to the early lead even as he seeks to stretch out for the first time. He is likely to see early pressure from Zulu (3-1) who is undefeated for Pletcher and also stretching out for the first time. Awesome Speed, off his mile victory in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes should follow close behind with Mohaymen. Awesome Banner might be the real deal and might be able to stretch out, but it's a tough assignment given the race dynamics. I think Mohaymen wins and Awesome Banner gamely fights on to hold off the other challengers.

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On Saturday, the El Camino Real Derby goes on the synthetic surface at Golden Gate Park. A full field of 14 is entered to fight over the 10 Derby points awarded to the winner. Also on Saturday is the Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. This one is not worth any points, but as the traditional prep for the Tampa Bay Derby, it can often be important. Todd Pletcher usually has a say in who wins this one and he has two entered in the small field of seven. Finally, on Monday, another full field of 14 contests the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The traditional prep for the Arkansas Derby is worth 10 points.

This prep race is a two-horse battle between Jerry Hollendorfer's I Will Score, stretching out after two sprint wins, and Bob Baffert's Mor Spirit, who is more seasoned and has run further. The race is 1 1/16 and serves as one of the preps that ultimately lead up to the Santa Anita Derby.

The El Camino Real is wide open.  ML favorite Frank Conversation, fresh off a win in the California Derby draws outside for Mario G and Doug O'Neill. While he has the tactical speed to overcome the 12 post, he's no bargain at 2-1 or less.  Other contenders are California Derby runner up Marqula and Mr. Coker, stretching out off a maiden win for Jerry Hollendorfer. But I think I would take a shot with Kasseipia for Motion and Van Dyke. He was last seen in October at Woodbine running 2d over the synthetic track in a G3 stakes. Seems worth a shot here. Hunch bet: San Dimas.  (San Dimas high school football rules!)

In the Sam Davis at Tampa, Pletcher's pair of Gettysburg and Destin appear to be the most likely winners because, you know, Pletcher. Again, I am interested in Graham Motion's horse here. Rafting (7-2) comes off a solid minor stake win at a mile at Gulfstream, he's had time off since that race in November and should move forward. I'm also partial to 3yos who broke their maiden last year at Saratoga. The one drawback - aside from going against Pletcher -- is that Edgar Prado is up.

On Monday, the Southwest Stakes again poses another wide open puzzle. The ML odds are not available yet, but one of the favorites is likely to be Discreetness, winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes, a traditional prep for this race. Problem is that he will have to overcome the 14 post. The other likely favorite is Collected, shipping in for Baffert/Garcia off his win in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita. You may remember that Baffert absolutely kills it shipping in to Oaklawn and that he and Garcia had a pretty good horse last year who did pretty well at Oaklawn.  Those two could be tough. Looking for a little more of a price?  I might take a shot with Whitmore who has two really nice sprint wins sandwiched around a failed attempt to stretch out in the Delta Jackpot Stakes. But that race was in the mud. His Dad is Pleasantly Perfect out of a Scat Daddy mare, so no reason he can't get the distance. And Ron Moquett brings Mike Smith to Arkansas for the race. If the price is right, he could be worth a wager.

In other news, there is a nice undercard at Tampa on Saturday including a turf race that features the return of Tepin against some other good turf fillies including one of my favorites, Lady Lara.

That's all for now.  Enjoy the long weekend